If Russia cuts off the flow of Nord Stream 1, natural gas prices in Europe will skyrocket. Natural gas prices are already at an all-time high, having risen 42 percent from close to $293 per MwH on Friday to a record high on Monday.
Europe gets roughly 40% of its natural gas from Russia. The majority is delivered via pipelines such as Yamal-Europe, which connects Belarus and Poland to Germany, and Nord Stream 1, which connects directly to Germany via Ukraine.
A network of pipelines connects Europe’s gas markets. Over time, most countries have reduced their reliance on Russian gas, and there are more supply routes that avoid Ukraine.
By last year, Ukraine had largely become a transit corridor for gas heading into Slovakia, from where it continued to Austria and Italy.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have an impact on flows through pipelines such as Yamal-Europe, Nord Stream 1, and TurkStream.
Despite the sanctions imposed on Nord Stream 2, the European Commission stated that current European gas supply would not be affected because the pipeline is not yet operational.
According to analysts at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, other possibilities include Russia suspending gas sales to Europe in retaliation for sanctions, or military conflict damaging one of the pipelines that cross Ukraine bringing gas to Europe.
