What will happen if Russia invades Ukraine? Will China come to help?
China said in a joint statement with Russia last week that it opposes NATO expansion and blames rising tensions on the United States. National security adviser Jake Sullivan of the White House warned on Sunday that China would “end up bearing some of the costs” of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Russia-China relations have improved in recent years, with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping holding regular summits and the militaries of the two countries participating in joint exercises and cooperating in some defense industrial efforts. Moscow and Beijing have closer ties than at any time since the days of Stalin and Mao, owing to a shared perception that the United States is each country’s primary foreign policy challenge. In December 2021, a top Russian official told the media that the relationship “exceeds an alliance.” Meanwhile, China’s state media has vocally supported Russia, claiming that the current crisis is the result of the US “using NATO as a tool to cannibalize and squeeze Russia’s strategic space.”
China’s response to the 2014 Ukraine crisis was generally to avoid taking sides, but it did approve of Russia’s seizure of Crimea or military action in the Donbas. Leaders in Beijing and around the world will see the US response to any military escalation against Ukraine as a test of whether the US could effectively respond to future crises in Asia. China’s approach to Russia amid a crisis will also be interpreted as sending signals about its own capabilities and influence.
As a result, even though China has no core issues at stake in Ukraine, China will not regard a new phase of war between Russia and Ukraine as a peripheral issue in its foreign policy. China is most likely to be drawn into the crisis by potential Western sanctions against Russia, which, unlike in 2014, will put significantly more pressure on Beijing to take sides. China’s decision to abide by new Western sanctions or assist Russia in avoiding them will shape escalation pathways and determine the magnitude of economic and political isolation imposed by sanctions.
