Asteroid 2024 YR4 Impact Probability Dropped to 0.004%: Expected to Safely Pass Earth in 2032
When the asteroid – ‘2024 YR4’ was first discovered by NASA, even though it was low, the asteroid did possess a chance of impact on Earth in 2032. However, as per what has been reported now by NASA, the impact probably of this asteroid has been brought down, revealing that it is expected to pass Earth safely in 2032.
Read more about it below.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 to Safely Pass Earth in 2032
The experts at the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies of the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has now concluded that the oncoming 2024 YR4 asteroid as of now has no significant impact potential on Earth for the next century, and this conclusion was reached by calculating the precise models of its trajectory. Earlier this month, the impact potential was reportedly increased to 2.3% from 1.9%.
The impact probability of this asteroid over time is pointed out to have been 1.2% on 27th January 2025, which increased to 1.6% on 31st January 2025, 1.8% on 5th February 2025, 2.1% on 10th February 2025, and to 3.1% on 18th February 2025. On the 19th of February 2025, it was reduced to 1.5%, and later to 0.3% on 20th February 2025. As of on the 23rd of February 2025, it is 0.004%. However, even if the asteroid has moved away from Earth, it still has a small chance of impact on the Moon, with current probability of 1.7%, on the 22nd of December 2032.
NASA will be continuing its observation of the asteroid 2024 YR4 (funded by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office), and the James Webb Space Telescope of NASA will observe it to determine its size in March 2025. Also, the 2024 YR4 asteroid has notably provided the opportunity for NASA experts and partner institutions to test planetary defense science and notification processes too.
